Every NFL front office has fallen for it: a raw player can blossom into the next big thing with proper coaching. But banking on upside over actual results can be a dangerous game, especially when you’re passing up proven stars to take that leap of faith.
From overhyped combine warriors to quarterbacks who dazzled in shorts but disappeared on Sundays, teams have learned that potential doesn’t pay the bills. Here are 15 times NFL franchises bet on projection over production and got burned.
15. Tennessee Titans Draft Jake Locker
Locker looked the part of a franchise quarterback but had accuracy issues that never improved. The Titans passed on more reliable options and were stuck in quarterback limbo for years.
14. Detroit Lions Draft Eric Ebron
Ebron had freakish athletic traits for a tight end, but his college production didn’t scream top-10 pick. The Lions ignored that and passed on Aaron Donald, making things worse.
13. Philadelphia Eagles Draft Marcus Smith
Smith was a classic “traits over tape” pick who flew up draft boards late. He never made an impact in Philly and was out of the league within a few years.
12. Las Vegas Raiders Draft Henry Ruggs III
Ruggs had blazing speed but wasn’t the most productive receiver in college. The Raiders chose him over more complete wideouts, and the tragic off-field events ended his career far too soon.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars Draft Blake Bortles
Bortles had size, arm strength, and raw talent, but his college tape was inconsistent at best. The Jaguars ignored the warning signs and paid the price with years of mediocrity.
10. New York Jets Draft Vernon Gholston
Gholston crushed the combine with a jaw-dropping workout, but it didn’t translate to game-day dominance. The Jets gambled on upside and ended up with zero sacks in his career.
9. San Francisco 49ers Draft A.J. Jenkins
Jenkins had one strong season in college, but wasn’t considered a first-rounder by many. The Niners went with potential, and he barely saw the field in San Francisco.
8. Arizona Cardinals Draft Robert Nkemdiche
Nkemdiche had top-tier athletic ability, but had question marks about effort and off-field behavior. The Cardinals looked past it, and he never lived up to the hype.
7. Cleveland Browns Draft Brandon Weeden
Weeden had a big arm and checked the physical boxes, but he was 28 and didn’t dominate at the college level. The Browns still thought they could mold him into a star—spoiler alert: they couldn’t.
6. Minnesota Vikings Draft Christian Ponder
Ponder’s draft rise was more about need than proven ability, and the Vikings jumped the gun. He was a reach from day one and never developed into a reliable starter.
5. Buffalo Bills Draft J.P. Losman
Losman had all the tools, but he struggled with decision-making and leadership. Buffalo banked on upside, and the bet didn’t even come close to paying off.
4. Chicago Bears Draft Kevin White
White had one breakout season at West Virginia and ran a blazing 40-yard dash. The Bears bought into the athleticism and ignored the red flags—injuries and inconsistency followed.
3. Denver Broncos Draft Paxton Lynch
Lynch looked like a prototypical NFL quarterback and had arm talent to spare. But he couldn’t read defenses or adjust to the speed of the NFL, and Denver was left scrambling for answers.
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2. Oakland Raiders Draft JaMarcus Russell
Russell’s arm strength was legendary, but questions about his work ethic and commitment were real. The Raiders bet everything on potential, which became one of the biggest busts in league history.
Read More: Ranking the 20 Worst Draft Picks in NFL History
1. New York Giants Draft Daniel Jones
Jones had flashes at Duke, but wasn’t exactly lighting it up statistically. The Giants saw something others didn’t—and several years later, they were still trying to justify the pick.
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